The slimmest of chances and a glimmer of hope — that’s all it takes to win the lottery and change the direction of your future forever. On Tuesday night, the city of Dallas had both, and maybe even the basketball gods on its side.
With only a measly 1.8% chance, the Dallas Mavericks landed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, the fourth-longest shot to win it since the Draft Lottery was introduced in 1985.
The NBA moved to a weighted Draft Lottery system in 1990, giving the team with the worst record the best chances at the No. 1 overall pick. The league has adjusted the odds several times over the past 35 years, with its latest coming in 2019. Now, the franchises with the three worst records all have an equal 14% chance at the prize, the fourth with 12.5%, and the fifth with 10.5%.
But at best, the NBA Draft Lottery feels flawed. The Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, and the Charlotte Hornets all had an equal shot at winning the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes. This past season, the three teams combined for a 54-192 (28.13%) record, each failing to reach 20 victories.
Instead, one-and-done Duke Blue Devil Cooper Flagg lands with the Mavericks, a fanbase that might deserve it after losing Luka Doncic in arguably the most stunning trade in the history of professional sports, but maybe not the team itself.
Maverick fans have been at Nico Harrison’s throat over the past couple of months, with “Fire Nico!” chants breaking out at several public events in Dallas, including Doncic’s return in purple and gold. After agreeing to give away the franchise’s generational superstar that just led his team to the NBA Finals for mere pennies on the dollar, Harrison is saved by the bell, or in this case, Flagg.
The NBA instituted the Draft Lottery system four decades ago to combat tanking. If you’re not guaranteed to get the first overall pick by being the worst, why even try to lose? However, even with a Draft Lottery system, teams still tank.
For the past several seasons, the front offices in Utah, Washington, and Charlotte have all been constructing rosters and making moves not meant to win or play entertaining basketball that inspires people to fill arena seats for the foreseeable future. The fans have endured the nonstop losing for long enough and would dream of even flirting with the Play-In Tournament, begging for a glimmer of hope or an end in sight.
So, why even have a Draft Lottery? The NBA has been shuffling with it for decades to get the odds right. Meanwhile, the NFL has determined its draft order the same way since its inception in 1936: in reverse order of the previous season’s standings. After 89 years, the league has yet to tinker with it, and there’s no indication that that will ever change.
Reverse order ensures that the teams with the most glaring holes are given the best chance to escape the bottomless pits of misery they find themselves in through the draft. Sometimes the simplest solution to a problem is the best option.
But there’s a football league that might be doing it even better. The United Football League, halfway through its second-annual season, is the product of the XFL and USFL merging in 2024.
The Michigan Panthers and Pittsburgh Maulers met in the final week of the USFL’s inaugural 2022 season, and they were tied for the league’s worst record: 1-8. In the NFL, the loser of this game would be bestowed the first pick in each draft round, but not in the USFL.
During the middle of the week, the USFL announced that the winner of the Week 10 showdown would have the first pick in every draft round, while the loser would have second. It’s the first time teams have been forced to compete for draft order in the history of professional sports.
Michigan went on to mangle the Maulers 33-21 to secure the first pick in every round of the 2023 USFL Draft. Executive Vice President Daryl Johnston and the league offices made a great move by taking advantage of an excellent opportunity to keep fans engaged in a game late in the season between two struggling teams.
In 2024, it happened again. The UFL’s Houston Roughnecks and Memphis Showboats met in a one-win rubber match in the season’s final week. Memphis outlasted Houston 19-12 to earn the first pick in every round of the 2025 UFL Draft.
The USFL and UFL got lucky with their scheduling to make these matchups with these kinds of stakes happen. It’s something the league will miss out on this year, as the Showboats travel to take on the San Antonio Brahmas on Friday at 8 p.m. ET on FOX in the Alamodome with both teams sharing 1-6 records. Still, it doesn’t mean it’s an idea that commissioners of other professional sports leagues should be thinking about.
While the idea of having players compete for their potential replacement sounds backwards, the added element encourages fans of struggling teams to continue to show support late into a lost season.
So, to Adam Silver, Mark Tatum, and whoever else it may concern, here’s my pitch to fix the NBA Draft Lottery: the teams with the league’s four worst records are seeded into a tournament, with the worst receiving home court. The winners of the first two matchups will then play each other to decide who will pick first and second, while the losers play in a third-place game. Offer cash prizes to the players for participating with bonuses for the winning teams, like the In-Season Tournament, and at last, the NBA’s Draft Lottery issue is solved.
This creates more competition and entertainment, the two things these sports leagues will always prioritize above everything else, while innovating on the NFL’s longstanding position on draft order.
So, while the NBA Draft Lottery may be flawed, the only way the system will ever be fixed is if somebody who holds power from within the association dares to try something new.
About the Author of the NBA Draft Lottery Dilemma
Ethan Stenger is a journalism and sports media student at LSU, where he covers SEC football. He’s been Sports Editor at The Reveille, covering LSU football and chasing stories around Tiger Stadium and beyond. Follow him on X @itsethanstenger
More content like NBA Draft Lottery Dilemma:
NBA Social Media Soars as Ratings Matter Less
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The NBA Media Rights Deal Details & What It Means for Fans
Luka Trade Conspiracy Theories | Follow the Money, See Where It Goes
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Read more about the NBA Draft Lottery Dilemma:
CBS Sports
Sports Illustrated
Become a content creator for SportsE Media – DM our founder on LinkedIn or X to learn more.
Want to Start a Podcast? Learn how to launch your own professional podcast: Get Started Now
The NBA Has a Draft Lottery Dilemma. Here’s How to Fix It
The slimmest of chances and a glimmer of hope — that’s all it takes to win the lottery and change the direction of your future forever. On Tuesday night, the city of Dallas had both, and maybe even the basketball gods on its side.
With only a measly 1.8% chance, the Dallas Mavericks landed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, the fourth-longest shot to win it since the Draft Lottery was introduced in 1985.
The NBA moved to a weighted Draft Lottery system in 1990, giving the team with the worst record the best chances at the No. 1 overall pick. The league has adjusted the odds several times over the past 35 years, with its latest coming in 2019. Now, the franchises with the three worst records all have an equal 14% chance at the prize, the fourth with 12.5%, and the fifth with 10.5%.
But at best, the NBA Draft Lottery feels flawed. The Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, and the Charlotte Hornets all had an equal shot at winning the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes. This past season, the three teams combined for a 54-192 (28.13%) record, each failing to reach 20 victories.
Instead, one-and-done Duke Blue Devil Cooper Flagg lands with the Mavericks, a fanbase that might deserve it after losing Luka Doncic in arguably the most stunning trade in the history of professional sports, but maybe not the team itself.
Maverick fans have been at Nico Harrison’s throat over the past couple of months, with “Fire Nico!” chants breaking out at several public events in Dallas, including Doncic’s return in purple and gold. After agreeing to give away the franchise’s generational superstar that just led his team to the NBA Finals for mere pennies on the dollar, Harrison is saved by the bell, or in this case, Flagg.
The NBA instituted the Draft Lottery system four decades ago to combat tanking. If you’re not guaranteed to get the first overall pick by being the worst, why even try to lose? However, even with a Draft Lottery system, teams still tank.
For the past several seasons, the front offices in Utah, Washington, and Charlotte have all been constructing rosters and making moves not meant to win or play entertaining basketball that inspires people to fill arena seats for the foreseeable future. The fans have endured the nonstop losing for long enough and would dream of even flirting with the Play-In Tournament, begging for a glimmer of hope or an end in sight.
So, why even have a Draft Lottery? The NBA has been shuffling with it for decades to get the odds right. Meanwhile, the NFL has determined its draft order the same way since its inception in 1936: in reverse order of the previous season’s standings. After 89 years, the league has yet to tinker with it, and there’s no indication that that will ever change.
Reverse order ensures that the teams with the most glaring holes are given the best chance to escape the bottomless pits of misery they find themselves in through the draft. Sometimes the simplest solution to a problem is the best option.
But there’s a football league that might be doing it even better. The United Football League, halfway through its second-annual season, is the product of the XFL and USFL merging in 2024.
The Michigan Panthers and Pittsburgh Maulers met in the final week of the USFL’s inaugural 2022 season, and they were tied for the league’s worst record: 1-8. In the NFL, the loser of this game would be bestowed the first pick in each draft round, but not in the USFL.
During the middle of the week, the USFL announced that the winner of the Week 10 showdown would have the first pick in every draft round, while the loser would have second. It’s the first time teams have been forced to compete for draft order in the history of professional sports.
Michigan went on to mangle the Maulers 33-21 to secure the first pick in every round of the 2023 USFL Draft. Executive Vice President Daryl Johnston and the league offices made a great move by taking advantage of an excellent opportunity to keep fans engaged in a game late in the season between two struggling teams.
In 2024, it happened again. The UFL’s Houston Roughnecks and Memphis Showboats met in a one-win rubber match in the season’s final week. Memphis outlasted Houston 19-12 to earn the first pick in every round of the 2025 UFL Draft.
The USFL and UFL got lucky with their scheduling to make these matchups with these kinds of stakes happen. It’s something the league will miss out on this year, as the Showboats travel to take on the San Antonio Brahmas on Friday at 8 p.m. ET on FOX in the Alamodome with both teams sharing 1-6 records. Still, it doesn’t mean it’s an idea that commissioners of other professional sports leagues should be thinking about.
While the idea of having players compete for their potential replacement sounds backwards, the added element encourages fans of struggling teams to continue to show support late into a lost season.
So, to Adam Silver, Mark Tatum, and whoever else it may concern, here’s my pitch to fix the NBA Draft Lottery: the teams with the league’s four worst records are seeded into a tournament, with the worst receiving home court. The winners of the first two matchups will then play each other to decide who will pick first and second, while the losers play in a third-place game. Offer cash prizes to the players for participating with bonuses for the winning teams, like the In-Season Tournament, and at last, the NBA’s Draft Lottery issue is solved.
This creates more competition and entertainment, the two things these sports leagues will always prioritize above everything else, while innovating on the NFL’s longstanding position on draft order.
So, while the NBA Draft Lottery may be flawed, the only way the system will ever be fixed is if somebody who holds power from within the association dares to try something new.
About the Author of the NBA Draft Lottery Dilemma
Ethan Stenger is a journalism and sports media student at LSU, where he covers SEC football. He’s been Sports Editor at The Reveille, covering LSU football and chasing stories around Tiger Stadium and beyond. Follow him on X @itsethanstenger
More content like NBA Draft Lottery Dilemma:
NBA Social Media Soars as Ratings Matter Less
NBA Attendance Doing Just Fine
The NBA Media Rights Deal Details & What It Means for Fans
Luka Trade Conspiracy Theories | Follow the Money, See Where It Goes
The League Has Fans Asking If It’s Rigged
Read more about the NBA Draft Lottery Dilemma:
CBS Sports
Sports Illustrated
Become a content creator for SportsE Media – DM our founder on LinkedIn or X to learn more.
Want to Start a Podcast? Learn how to launch your own professional podcast: Get Started Now