The Grand National has never belonged entirely to the favorites. Even with punters already studying the Grand National 2026 odds, Aintree has a long history of producing chaos, fairytale finishes, and winners few saw coming. That tension between logic and unpredictability is part of what has kept the race relevant for generations.
For all the data, trends, and analysis that now surround major racing events, the Grand National still has a habit of humbling assumptions. Here’s a look at some of the horses that most defied expectations this millennium.
2007: Silver Birch — 33/1
Gordon Elliott had not trained a single winner in his native Ireland when Silver Birch landed the 2007 Grand National. The 33/1 outsider, ridden by Robbie Power, edged out McKelvey by three-quarters of a length to make Elliott the youngest trainer in the history of the race at just 29 years old.
It was his first-ever Grand National runner, which only adds to the scale of the achievement. Elliott has since added Tiger Roll’s back-to-back victories to his résumé, but this was the moment that put him on the map in one of jump racing’s most demanding events.
2009: Mon Mome — 100/1
The biggest-priced Grand National winner since Foinavon in 1967, Mon Mome’s victory under Liam Treadwell remains one of the race’s most astonishing results.
Trained by Venetia Williams, the French-bred nine-year-old had been well regarded earlier in the season and was even sent off favorite for the Welsh National just months before. But after some underwhelming form, he drifted to 100/1 and was largely dismissed.
At Aintree, none of that mattered. He powered clear to win by 12 lengths from the previous year’s winner, Comply Or Die. Williams became just the second woman to train a Grand National winner after Jenny Pitman, while Treadwell was having his first-ever ride in the race.
2012: Neptune Collonges — 33/1
Grey horses do not have a strong record in the Grand National, which made Neptune Collonges’ victory stand out even more.
The Paul Nicholls-trained gelding, ridden by Daryl Jacob, edged out Sunnyhillboy in one of the closest finishes in race history. The photo finish only added to the drama, but the bigger story was that the market had largely overlooked a horse with serious class.
Neptune Collonges was officially rated 168 after the win, a number that speaks to the quality of the performance even if many bettors had moved on from him before the race began.
2013: Auroras Encore — 66/1
Just one year after Neptune Collonges, the Grand National produced another huge shock.
Sue Smith’s Auroras Encore, ridden by Ryan Mania, won at 66/1 in one of the most chaotic editions of the race in recent memory. The result reinforced what makes Aintree different from so many other major races: even when the form appears clear, the National can create an entirely different script.
For fans, moments like this are exactly why the race remains such a focal point in the horse racing calendar. It is also why even the strongest pre-race opinions can quickly unravel once the field starts to thin out.
2022: Noble Yeats — 50/1
Few Grand National victories in recent years have captured the public imagination like Noble Yeats in 2022.
It had already been announced that Sam Waley-Cohen would ride the horse in the National as the final ride of his career before retirement. That alone gave the story some weight. Then the seven-year-old, trained by Emmet Mullins, delivered at 50/1 in one of the sport’s most memorable endings.
Noble Yeats also became the first seven-year-old to win the race since Bogskar in 1940, adding another layer to a result that already felt unlikely.
2025: Nick Rockett — 33/1
Last year’s Grand National carried an emotional edge that separated it from almost any recent renewal.
Nick Rockett, trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by his amateur jockey son Patrick, won at 33/1 to create the first father-son trainer and jockey combination ever to win the race. That alone would have made it memorable.
But the story went deeper. Owner Stewart Andrew had purchased the horse with his wife Sadie, who had always dreamed of having a Grand National runner trained by Mullins. Sadie died in December 2022, just five days after watching Nick Rockett race for the first time. Stewart carried that story with him all the way to Aintree, and the result gave the race one of its most personal and emotional modern victories.
The Grand National’s Most Unpredictable Stretch
For those looking at Grand National tips, it is worth remembering just how volatile this race can be, even over an extended stretch.
From 2012 through 2016, no winner returned at shorter than 25/1. Neptune Collonges and Auroras Encore were the headline upsets, but Pineau De Re (2014), Many Clouds (2015), and Rule The World (2016) were all sent off between 25/1 and 33/1.
It was a five-year run that underlined, more than most, how open the Grand National can become once the race actually unfolds. Reputation matters. Preparation matters. So does class. But over four miles and 30 fences, the market is never as safe as it looks.
Why the Grand National Still Defies Logic
Part of what makes the Grand National different is that it resists easy forecasting. Other major races often reward the strongest horse in the cleanest way. Aintree rarely works like that.
Distance, fences, pace, pressure, and positioning all combine to create a race where even the most carefully built case can fall apart. That is why the event remains so compelling for casual fans and seasoned racing followers alike.
It is also why each new edition creates fresh intrigue. Every year, bettors, fans, and analysts return with stronger data and sharper opinions. And every year, the race reminds them that unpredictability is not a flaw in the Grand National. It is the point.
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