Who Will Win: Pacers vs Knicks Eastern Conference Finals

The NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals is set, but not with the teams most expected. Instead of the Celtics-Cavaliers showdown everyone penciled in months ago, we’re getting the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers in a revival of one of basketball’s most storied rivalries. This matchup—25 years after their last conference finals meeting—offers a perfect blend of history and fresh storylines.

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks | A Rivalry Reborn

When John Starks delivered those two quick fouls on Reggie Miller in 1993, he unknowingly sparked one of basketball’s most intense feuds. From Miller’s 25-point fourth quarter and iconic choke gesture toward Spike Lee, to “Eight Points, Nine Seconds,” to Larry Johnson’s “L” sign after his four-point play, the Knicks-Pacers rivalry defined ’90s basketball. The two teams faced off six times in the playoffs between 1993 and 2000, with the Pacers holding a slight 26-22 edge in postseason meetings.

Now the rivalry returns to the conference finals stage, with neither franchise having reached the NBA Finals since they last faced each other at this level—the Pacers in 2000 and the Knicks in 1999.

Strength vs. Strength

What makes this series so compelling is the clash of styles. The Pacers want to run; the Knicks want to grind. Indiana’s offense flows through Tyrese Haliburton, whose passing brilliance fuels an attack averaging nearly 120 points per game this postseason. The Pacers shoot 48% from the field and an impressive 42% from three-point range in these playoffs.

New York, meanwhile, needs to win this series on defense. In all three regular-season matchups against the Pacers, they scored above 120 points, showing they can keep pace offensively. But their path to the Finals hinges on how much they can slow Indiana down.

The Point Guard Showdown

Tyrese Haliburton and Jalen Brunson developed a close friendship through their play together on Team USA in the 2023 FIBA World Cup. They even appeared together at a WWE Smackdown event at Madison Square Garden after last year’s playoffs, teasing a rivalry that’s as much friendly as it is fierce.

On the court, they couldn’t be more different. Haliburton is arguably the best distributing point guard in the game, finishing third in assists this season while leading the league in assist-to-turnover ratio. Brunson, meanwhile, is one of the NBA’s elite scoring guards, finishing eighth in scoring with 26 points per game.

Brunson earned Clutch Player of the Year honors this season and has been ruthless in the playoffs, averaging 28.8 points and hitting series-defining shots. Haliburton leads all playoff performers with 9.3 assists per game and has delivered game-winners against both Milwaukee and Cleveland.

X-Factors: Rebounding and Depth

New York’s rebounding advantage could prove decisive in this series. The Knicks grab 13.2 offensive rebounds per game in the postseason, creating extra possessions that compensate for their sometimes stagnant halfcourt offense. Mitchell Robinson has been a force on the glass, with the Knicks grabbing an astounding 39% of their own misses when he’s on the floor—a rate that would shatter NBA records if sustained for a full season.

The Pacers, meanwhile, barely get any rebounding from their guards. Haliburton often prioritizes setting up for outlet passes over boxing out, creating opportunities for Josh Hart, one of the league’s best rebounding guards.

Where Indiana holds a clear advantage is bench depth. The Knicks barely use their bench. All five of their starters finished in the top 25 in minutes this season, with Bridges, Hart, and Anunoby all in the top six. Only McBride and Robinson average more than 10 minutes per game in the playoffs.

The Pacers, by contrast, rely extensively on their bench, averaging 35.7 points per game from reserves in the playoffs. T.J. McConnell, Obi Toppin, and Bennedict Mathurin (who missed last year’s playoffs with a torn labrum) all rank in the top 10 in scoring among bench players. This depth allows Indiana to maintain their frenetic pace and full-court pressure throughout games.

Key Matchups to Watch in Pacers vs Knicks

The natural matchup for Haliburton is Mikal Bridges, who possesses the requisite speed and length to handle someone of Haliburton’s size and dexterity. But the Pacers will fight to take away New York’s preferred matchups, targeting what they perceive as “weak spots” in Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns.

The Celtics tried the same strategy and failed, but the Pacers have a deeper rotation of threats. Pascal Siakam presents a particularly tough matchup, currently averaging 19 points on 55% shooting in the playoffs. He can punish smaller defenders like Josh Hart and OG Anunoby in the post.

Towns has dominated this matchup all year, averaging 30.3 points and 12 rebounds against Indiana. Myles Turner struggles to guard him effectively on the perimeter, and Indiana lacks quality backup big men. For all its depth, the Pacers’ frontcourt remains vulnerable.

Pacers vs Knicks Betting Outlook

Game 1 at Madison Square Garden has the Knicks as 4-point favorites with a moneyline of -175, while the Pacers sit at +145 underdogs. The over/under is set at 223 points, suggesting oddsmakers expect a relatively high-scoring affair with implied team totals of 113.5 for New York and 109.5 for Indiana. Both teams have been perfect in Game 1s this postseason (2-0), making the opening contest particularly intriguing for bettors. The Pacers have been road warriors, going 4-1 away from home with four straight wins, while the Knicks are just 3-3 at MSG but have won their last two. For series bets, Knicks in 7 (+400) is the current favorite, followed by Pacers in 6 (+450), with both series going 6 or 7 games priced at +220.

Pacers vs Knicks Prediction Time

Both teams enter with momentum and confidence after toppling higher seeds. The Pacers dismantled Cleveland in five games, while the Knicks engineered multiple double-digit comebacks to stun Boston in six.

This series will likely come down to pace and possession. If Indiana can run, they win. If New York can slow the game down and dominate the glass, they advance. The Knicks’ switching defense could force the Pacers into isolation basketball, disrupting their free-flowing offense. But Indiana coach Rick Carlisle has championship experience and will be ready with counters.

Madison Square Garden provides New York with an electric home-court advantage, but Indiana has shown it can win on the road, taking three games in Cleveland. The Pacers’ depth should prove valuable as the series progresses, especially with the Knicks’ starters logging heavy minutes throughout the playoffs.

Prediction: Pacers in 6. Indiana’s balanced attack, superior depth, and improved defense will ultimately wear down the Knicks in what should be another classic chapter in this storied rivalry.